Oddshot
Finalist week · Oct 23–29, 2026
One week.
10 tools → 17.
One 14x call.
Oddshot is a PayBox plugin that reads prediction-market odds on Polymarket and Kalshi, and finds the Solana memecoins riding the same story before they move. It checks each coin's safety and builds the swap; PayBox signs it, so Oddshot never touches a key. Named one of 13 finalists on Oct 23, it shipped every feature below live on PayBox within the week.
The week
Newest first.
| Thu Oct 29 | Live receipt: the Oct 16 $GTA6 call is up 1,279%, about 14x. |
| Wed Oct 28 | Oddshot 1.6.3 live on PayBox with 17 tools, tested with real money. Docs site launched. The update post, quote-posted by PayBox. |
| Tue Oct 27 | Oddshot 1.4 live: Kalshi, macro board, seatbelt. The rug, explained posted. |
| Mon Oct 26 | Late, again, an animated story video, posted and quote-posted by PayBox. v1.3.3 released on GitHub. |
| Sun Oct 25 | X article “Oddshot: the odds move first, the memes follow”, reposted by PayBox. |
| Fri Oct 23 | Named one of 13 finalists, with Oddshot 1.3.1 live (10 tools). |
What shipped
Every release below is live on PayBox now as part of 1.6.3, and the code is public. Each went through rounds of independent review before it went live.
| 1.6.3 · Oct 28 | Every tool answers inside PayBox's time limit (about 5 seconds per call); a cleaner board with one story per topic. |
| 1.6.0 · Oct 28 | Automatic take-profits: take_profit, cancel_order and my_orders turn the exit plan into Jupiter limit orders that sell by themselves. |
| 1.5 · Oct 27 | rug_autopsy explains a crash (creator dump, whale dump or pulled liquidity); a creator alarm in every safety check; top_up gives a MoonPay link for the exact SOL or USDC a trade is short. |
| 1.4.2 · Oct 27 | Sector focus (stocks, AI, politics or any keyword), shipped because @AiFlippa asked for it. |
| 1.4.1 · Oct 27 | The rug setup from Tuesday's video (a pool under an hour old with no organic trading) is now RED, and Oddshot refuses to build the buy. |
| 1.4.0 · Oct 27 | Kalshi next to Polymarket; macro_board reads Fed and recession odds for SOL, BTC and ETH; seatbelt says hold, trim or exit for each coin held. |
Live proof
Everything in 1.6 was run live through PayBox on Oct 28, including real trades on Solana mainnet. All 17 tools answered inside their time limit, and Kalshi was checked live in five of them.
The take-profit round trip
A $4 $WIF buy, a take-profit order for 22.0793 WIF at $0.25363 (40% above the buy), the cancel, and the sell back. Four transactions, about 4 cents in total.
| Buy | AGbmTsmF…fh2xzz |
| Take-profit order | 3H2Grx8y…iGipsT |
| Cancel | 5BcAuqz3…tcG52Q |
| Sell | 23MT18t5…iho2rt |
The rug that became a tool
On Oct 27, Oddshot flagged $NVIDIA as LATE, with zero organic trading on a pool about 30 minutes old. A $2 buy went through anyway at 10:05 UTC (Solscan).
Six minutes later the creator sold 478M tokens, 48% of the supply, for about $40K, and the price fell 99.8%.
rug_autopsy reads that crash as CREATOR DUMP, the same setup is RED, and Oddshot refuses to build the buy.Receipts: hits and misses
Oddshot grades its own calls in public with the receipt tool, and misses count as much as hits.
| Call | Called | Result | Checked |
|---|---|---|---|
| $GTA6, EARLY at #1 on the board | Oct 16, 21:44 UTC, at $0.001208 | HIT +1,279% ($0.01665), peak +1,460% | Oct 29, 12:57 UTC |
| $ANT | Oct 23 | MISS about −40% | Oct 26 |
| $ELON | Oct 16, 18:06 UTC | MISS about −80% in USD | Oct 25 |
Why $GTA6 was a call. The crowd on Polymarket piled into the GTA VI trailer market (+29 points to 67% in a day) while $GTA6 hadn't moved. The board's words were “The window is open.”
What the $ELON miss fixed. A stale price feed made an early build grade it a HIT. The pool's on-chain balances showed the truth, and receipts now refuse to grade when two price sources disagree by 2x or more.
Safety and limits
Oddshot proposes and PayBox signs: the plugin never holds a key, and every trade is a transaction the user's PayBox wallet approves.
Safety
- Checks on every coin: liquidity, holder concentration, mint and freeze authority, organic trading, and the creator's own wallet. RED means Oddshot won't build the buy.
- Seatbelt: for each coin held, hold, trim or exit, with the exact sell ready to approve.
- Tokenized stocks stay out: discovery never surfaces tokenized securities.
Limits, stated plainly
- Take-profit only, no stop-loss. Jupiter's keyless orders can only wait for a rise. The seatbelt watches for rugs, creator dumps and dying stories, not the price.
- Jupiter's terms apply: at least $5 per order, about 0.0041 SOL of rent per order (returned when it closes), 0.1% fee on fill.
- ChatGPT sometimes blocks trade calls with its own safety check before Oddshot runs. Trades work reliably in Claude.
- About 5 seconds per call, PayBox's budget for a plugin. When a source is slow, Oddshot says so instead of hanging.
What's next
Oddshot keeps going after judging, whatever the result.
- MoonPay top-ups in productionOnce the partner account clears, top-up links run through Oddshot's MoonPay account.
- Oddshot ProPremium calls paid in cents of USDC over x402, through PayBox.
- More chainsBase and BNB after Solana.